Sub:- (i)- In view of UNGA speech, Pakistan bound to try to separate Kashmir as India separated Bangladesh in 1971(ii)- India expert in waking-up after damage done as happened during gory partition in 1947 (iii)- India equally vulnerable as West Pakistan was in East Pakistan in 1971 (iv)- India left with only one alternative, to retrieve PoJK militarily (v)- India can retrieve PoJK only when India prepared for united Indo-Pak (Later SAARC) (vi)- Only genuine secular party in power can retrieve PoJK.
----- When immediately after killing of terrorist outfit Hizb-ul-Mujahideen’s Commander Burhan Wani on July 8 he was termed as freedom-fighter (shaheed) by Pak PM Nawaz Sharif India realized that the pressure of USA (after 9/11) to not term terrorist as freedom fighter has lifted after 15 years and now again Pakistan has stared equating terrorist in Kashmir as freedom fighter. Therefore India started (especially and more energetically after Uri terrorist attack on Army camp allegedly by Pakistan on September, 18) to get Pakistan declared as terrorist State and getting Pak isolated at international level due to its allegedly pro-terrorism policies.
But now not only even at UNGA Pakistan has compared Wani to freedom fighter but anchor of a leading TV channel of Pakistan (during debate on prominent Indian TV channel on Thursday) has informed India what Pakistan thinks about it by saying that Wani did what Shaeed-e-Azam Bhagat Sigh did against Britishers. He further said that whatever India may think Pakistan thinks that Kashmir is a disputed territory between India and Pakistan and Indian security forces are occupying force in J&K against which Wani and Kashmiris (through present unrest) are fighting an independence struggle. All these means that now Pakistan (though will make lot of noise at international level for plebiscite in J&K) but in reality is going to try hard to even-out by getting Kashmir separated from India in order to settle the score about what India did in East Pakistan in 1971 by liberating Bangladesh.
Hindu majority India is expert in waking-up after damage is done as happened during gory partition in 1947. Hence India may be thinking that with proportionately much bigger military power of India, Pakistan cannot achieve its said objectives in Kashmir. But it is not correct due to six reasons:-
(1)- Pakistan shares border and LOC with J&K in contrast to East Pakistan which is thousands of Kilo Meters away from West Pakistan
(2)- In addition to military, police and bureaucracy (which every State including India has) Pakistan being Islamic country has fourth organ also at its disposal, the Jihadis as explained at - http://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/detail.php?articleid=2756 and these Jihadis will be immensely useful to Pakistan in separating Kashmir from India. Especially after UNGA speech now Pakistan can even openly use Jihadis like LeT, JeM, HuM, JuD etc for snatching Muslim Kashmir from Hindu India.
(3)- After present unrest in Kashmir the ‘Organization of Islamic cooperation’ (OIC) is taking keen interest in Kashmir problem hence OIC not only invited Maulvi Mirwaiz of Hurriyat to present their case about Kashmir during UNGA but Turkey (as Chair of HR Commission of OIC) is planning to send fact finding mission to Kashmir. Hence if Kashmiris are seen by OIC to be excessively oppressed (by way of much more killing, injuries, blinding by pellet guns) then some powerful countries of OIC will invoke Islam against India (in order to even prevent ISIS getting upper hand in such situation which otherwise would have huge potential of entry of blood thirsty ISIS in AF-PAK-Kashmir region ).
(4)- Militarily India presently does not have any alliance partner as it had USSR in 1971 which threatened to send its fleets in support of India when USA threatened to send its 7th fleet in support of Pakistan and this was the main factor in the victory of India against Pakistan in 1971 at the soil of Bangladesh. Moreover Russia nurses a grudge against India that India did not help USSR in cold war in Afghanistan by at-that-time retrieving PoJK (India’s own territory) militarily which would have given tremendous upper hand to USSR against USA (by constraining US Ally Pakistan to shift its offensive focus from Afghanistan to defensive focus in PoJK). Though it would not have avoided the collapse of USSR (which was inevitable due to squandering of State capital by USSR) but at-least it would have enabled India to pay-back its debt to USSR (about 1971 Bangladesh war). Hence Indians should not be surprised if Russia does not come this time to help India, which believes only in one-sided-friendship.
(5)- Not withstanding its public postures USA (and its Allies) will not go against Pakistan due its dependability on Pak in Afghanistan. Also one should not be surprised if USA may secretly wish the defeat of India out of grievance which USA has against India because India did not heed to vehement requests (demands) of USA to desist from dismembering US Ally Pakistan in 1971.
(6)- India has offended China deeply by trying to harm its interests about economic corridor (through Balochistan too) which is extremely important for China because it not only reduced transport distance and cost of its imports and exports but will also by-pass many not-so-friendly countries of Pacific and Indo-Sri Lanka region while getting access to entire NAME region etc. Though China will of-course not intervene militarily to overtly help Pakistan but certainly will covertly provide every type of help (finance, military equipments, arms, ammunitions etc) and even diplomatic help to Pakistan in order to ensure that India is not left with any teeth to harass China in future on economic corridor.
Therefor India should formulate its policies by realizing that presently India is equally vulnerable in Kashmir as West Pakistan was in East Pakistan in 1971. In view of present unrest in Kashmir, India is left with only one alternative to avoid separation of Kashmir from India which is to retrieve PoJK militarily. But (in view of both India and Pakistan being nuclear countries) tremendous international pressure will come to avoid all-out Indo – Pak war. This may result only in one solution which is united Indo-Pak (so that J&K may remain with both in new political dispensation). Later on it may culminate even in Realized SAARC (once issue of Bangladeshi illegal immigrants, both Hindus and Muslims, is seriously raised by India).
But it is easy said than done only for one reason that unified Indo-Pak (SAARC) can be achieved (through retrieve of PoJK militarily) only by a political party in power at center which is genuinely secular. This presently is not the case about BJP or any other political party of India. Hence it is possible only if some political party comes in existence (or existing party modifies itself) generally on the line as I suggested to Dr Farooq Abdullah of National Conference as explained at - http://www.alwihdainfo.com/Farooq-can-t-find-Kashmir-solution-without-adhering-to-Progressive-ideology-of-his-father-Sheikh-Abdullah_a38631.html
Therefor Indians should wake up and should either launch a genuinely secular party (which will constrain all the existing party to adopt genuine secularism) or to put pressure on existing political parties to adopt genuine secularism so that PoJK can be retrieved militarily. Otherwise Pakistan which has smelt blood in Kashmir (due to present unrest in Kashmir) will succeed in taking revenge of 1971 by getting Kashmir separated from India.
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Bengaluru, India
----- When immediately after killing of terrorist outfit Hizb-ul-Mujahideen’s Commander Burhan Wani on July 8 he was termed as freedom-fighter (shaheed) by Pak PM Nawaz Sharif India realized that the pressure of USA (after 9/11) to not term terrorist as freedom fighter has lifted after 15 years and now again Pakistan has stared equating terrorist in Kashmir as freedom fighter. Therefore India started (especially and more energetically after Uri terrorist attack on Army camp allegedly by Pakistan on September, 18) to get Pakistan declared as terrorist State and getting Pak isolated at international level due to its allegedly pro-terrorism policies.
But now not only even at UNGA Pakistan has compared Wani to freedom fighter but anchor of a leading TV channel of Pakistan (during debate on prominent Indian TV channel on Thursday) has informed India what Pakistan thinks about it by saying that Wani did what Shaeed-e-Azam Bhagat Sigh did against Britishers. He further said that whatever India may think Pakistan thinks that Kashmir is a disputed territory between India and Pakistan and Indian security forces are occupying force in J&K against which Wani and Kashmiris (through present unrest) are fighting an independence struggle. All these means that now Pakistan (though will make lot of noise at international level for plebiscite in J&K) but in reality is going to try hard to even-out by getting Kashmir separated from India in order to settle the score about what India did in East Pakistan in 1971 by liberating Bangladesh.
Hindu majority India is expert in waking-up after damage is done as happened during gory partition in 1947. Hence India may be thinking that with proportionately much bigger military power of India, Pakistan cannot achieve its said objectives in Kashmir. But it is not correct due to six reasons:-
(1)- Pakistan shares border and LOC with J&K in contrast to East Pakistan which is thousands of Kilo Meters away from West Pakistan
(2)- In addition to military, police and bureaucracy (which every State including India has) Pakistan being Islamic country has fourth organ also at its disposal, the Jihadis as explained at - http://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/detail.php?articleid=2756 and these Jihadis will be immensely useful to Pakistan in separating Kashmir from India. Especially after UNGA speech now Pakistan can even openly use Jihadis like LeT, JeM, HuM, JuD etc for snatching Muslim Kashmir from Hindu India.
(3)- After present unrest in Kashmir the ‘Organization of Islamic cooperation’ (OIC) is taking keen interest in Kashmir problem hence OIC not only invited Maulvi Mirwaiz of Hurriyat to present their case about Kashmir during UNGA but Turkey (as Chair of HR Commission of OIC) is planning to send fact finding mission to Kashmir. Hence if Kashmiris are seen by OIC to be excessively oppressed (by way of much more killing, injuries, blinding by pellet guns) then some powerful countries of OIC will invoke Islam against India (in order to even prevent ISIS getting upper hand in such situation which otherwise would have huge potential of entry of blood thirsty ISIS in AF-PAK-Kashmir region ).
(4)- Militarily India presently does not have any alliance partner as it had USSR in 1971 which threatened to send its fleets in support of India when USA threatened to send its 7th fleet in support of Pakistan and this was the main factor in the victory of India against Pakistan in 1971 at the soil of Bangladesh. Moreover Russia nurses a grudge against India that India did not help USSR in cold war in Afghanistan by at-that-time retrieving PoJK (India’s own territory) militarily which would have given tremendous upper hand to USSR against USA (by constraining US Ally Pakistan to shift its offensive focus from Afghanistan to defensive focus in PoJK). Though it would not have avoided the collapse of USSR (which was inevitable due to squandering of State capital by USSR) but at-least it would have enabled India to pay-back its debt to USSR (about 1971 Bangladesh war). Hence Indians should not be surprised if Russia does not come this time to help India, which believes only in one-sided-friendship.
(5)- Not withstanding its public postures USA (and its Allies) will not go against Pakistan due its dependability on Pak in Afghanistan. Also one should not be surprised if USA may secretly wish the defeat of India out of grievance which USA has against India because India did not heed to vehement requests (demands) of USA to desist from dismembering US Ally Pakistan in 1971.
(6)- India has offended China deeply by trying to harm its interests about economic corridor (through Balochistan too) which is extremely important for China because it not only reduced transport distance and cost of its imports and exports but will also by-pass many not-so-friendly countries of Pacific and Indo-Sri Lanka region while getting access to entire NAME region etc. Though China will of-course not intervene militarily to overtly help Pakistan but certainly will covertly provide every type of help (finance, military equipments, arms, ammunitions etc) and even diplomatic help to Pakistan in order to ensure that India is not left with any teeth to harass China in future on economic corridor.
Therefor India should formulate its policies by realizing that presently India is equally vulnerable in Kashmir as West Pakistan was in East Pakistan in 1971. In view of present unrest in Kashmir, India is left with only one alternative to avoid separation of Kashmir from India which is to retrieve PoJK militarily. But (in view of both India and Pakistan being nuclear countries) tremendous international pressure will come to avoid all-out Indo – Pak war. This may result only in one solution which is united Indo-Pak (so that J&K may remain with both in new political dispensation). Later on it may culminate even in Realized SAARC (once issue of Bangladeshi illegal immigrants, both Hindus and Muslims, is seriously raised by India).
But it is easy said than done only for one reason that unified Indo-Pak (SAARC) can be achieved (through retrieve of PoJK militarily) only by a political party in power at center which is genuinely secular. This presently is not the case about BJP or any other political party of India. Hence it is possible only if some political party comes in existence (or existing party modifies itself) generally on the line as I suggested to Dr Farooq Abdullah of National Conference as explained at - http://www.alwihdainfo.com/Farooq-can-t-find-Kashmir-solution-without-adhering-to-Progressive-ideology-of-his-father-Sheikh-Abdullah_a38631.html
Therefor Indians should wake up and should either launch a genuinely secular party (which will constrain all the existing party to adopt genuine secularism) or to put pressure on existing political parties to adopt genuine secularism so that PoJK can be retrieved militarily. Otherwise Pakistan which has smelt blood in Kashmir (due to present unrest in Kashmir) will succeed in taking revenge of 1971 by getting Kashmir separated from India.
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Bengaluru, India