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PDP’s separation warning means either India takes PoK or Pakistan will take Kashmir
Bengaluru, India
Sub- (i)- This time war will not be for religion but for human rights hence advantage Pakistan (ii)- Substantial local population against any government is bad in war
--One of the mainstream political party the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of J&K on July, 28 warned of another partition of India if lynching of Muslims over cow-smuggling allegations were not stopped forthwith, as widely reported in electronic & print media of India also at - https://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/kashmir/pdp-leader-muzafar-baig-warns-of-another-partition-if-lynchings-not-stopped/291823.html
As usual due to militaristic approach India has shrugged-off this warning of PDP but it will be blunder on the part of India because this time danger is real and Pakistan may snatch Kashmir from India by force if India does not wake-up and does not retrieve PoK, as mentioned below:-
(1)- Such warning from main stream party of J&K like PDP about separation of Kashmir from India was due. After killing of Hizbul Commander Burhan Wani in July 2016 by Indian Security forces, Pakistan started smelling blood especially after widespread agitations and about 5 months long ‘Bandh’ (strike) in Kashmir over Burhan’s killing and injury by pellet guns (including blinding) of demonstrators.
(2)- Hence Pakistan started preparations for snatching Kashmir from India by force. As a part of the strategy to snatch Kashmir (after getting so-called pro-India Nawaz out of the way with the help of pliant judiciary) Pakistan military has already paved the way for its proxy Imran Khan as PM. After winning election in his media address Imran has already termed Kashmir as core issue and equated terrorism by Pakistan in Kashmir with alleged terrorism by India in Baluchistan.
(3)- Notwithstanding PM Modi’s hollow claims (that his visits to many Muslims countries especially of NAME region has made Muslim countries friendly to India) the Pakistan could get 2018 UNHRC report (supported by UN General Secretary) in its favor with the help (as alleged by India and its media) of these Muslim countries. These Muslim countries also supply most of petroleum oil to India ( Iran is already under US sanctions due to nuclear issue hence there is US pressure on India to stop oil imports from Iran). As supplier of crucial oil (especially during war) to India these Muslim countries will obviously do everything to see Pakistan winning war with India for protecting human rights of Muslim Kashmiris which are being violated grossly as per UNHRC 2018 report which was prepared (as alleged by India itself) on the lobbying of these Muslim countries
(4)- In this UNHRC 2018 report India has been portrayed as villain. In other words Pakistan has prepared a ground among global community where (in the event of large human right violations in Kashmir in future which Pakistan can always engineer through its proxies in Kashmir and now especially given the situation where separatist’s friendly PDP has been thrown out of government by Hindutva party BJP by withdrawing its support to PDP) any military intervention by Pakistan for snatching Muslim Kashmir will be condoned (as fait accompli) if not supported with gusto by world community (including by powerful Christian West led by USA which always wants to be seen on the right side of human rights all across the world)
(5)- Indians are under the delusion that Pakistan can never dare to attack India militarily because India is militarily too powerful as compared to Pakistan. But naïve India is not trying to understand that large Indian military in Kashmir will not be able to avoid separation of Kashmir. In this age of human rights friendly world, nuclear Pakistan need not get clear military victory over nuclear India to snatch Kashmir. Merely prolonged military engagement (even low pitch) coupled with gory violation of human rights of Kashmiris during such low-pitch war (which Pakistan can always engineer through its proxies) are enough to bring world community / UN to grant (on the so-called wish of the Kashmiris) Kashmir to Pakistan. There is one single road from Jammu to Kashmir through difficult mountainous terrain (which will cause immense problem for India in providing prolonged military supply in Kashmir valley which is surrounded by Pakistan and not so friendly China on three sides). Also presence of separatists / terrorists especially in south Kashmir will go a long way in helping Pakistan in many ways including morally and in blocking India’s only military supply line to Kashmir.
(6)- During this Indo-Pak war China will be an important & deciding factor. China (for whom Pakistan is an important ally due to CPEC) will of-course supply military equipments etc to Pakistan to any extent. As far fighters Pakistan has enough if we take Jihadi trained fighters also in reckoning, which Pakistan will get in any number (in the name of protecting human rights of Muslim Kashmiris against infidel Hindus) to match the numbers of Indian military. But if China decides to rake-up Doklam in order to snatch all or part of Arunachal Pradesh (which China claims its own) if not to cut-off entire North-East through chicken neck, then it will be different catastrophe for India. [in the matter of N-E the response of Bangladesh (on other side of Chicken-neck) will also be crucial especially in view of NCR (National citizen Register in Assam) which is bound to create serious tension between India and Bangladesh and which may even bring another Imran Khan in Bangladesh]
(7)- India can avoid separation of Kashmir if retrieves PoK militarily which may result even in federation of Indo – Pak or even SAARC because world community will not allow full-fledged war between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan. The Muslims from rest of India will be worst sufferers of separation of Kashmir from India because many Hindus still complained that why after partition Muslims were not asked to go to Muslim Pakistan and Bangladesh (then East Pakistan). After separation of Kashmir it will be almost impossible for anyone to stop India from becoming practically (if not constitutionally) a theocratic State the ‘Hindu Rashtra’ in which what will be the fate of Indian Muslims is any body’s guess.
Hence Indians (especially Indian Muslims) who do not want separation of Kashmir from India (also in the interest of survival of secularism in India) should demand vehemently and vociferously from government of India that PoK should be retrieved (even militarily if necessary) without any further delay.
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Shakopee, Minnesota, USA.
Presently at: Bengaluru, India
--One of the mainstream political party the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of J&K on July, 28 warned of another partition of India if lynching of Muslims over cow-smuggling allegations were not stopped forthwith, as widely reported in electronic & print media of India also at - https://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/kashmir/pdp-leader-muzafar-baig-warns-of-another-partition-if-lynchings-not-stopped/291823.html
As usual due to militaristic approach India has shrugged-off this warning of PDP but it will be blunder on the part of India because this time danger is real and Pakistan may snatch Kashmir from India by force if India does not wake-up and does not retrieve PoK, as mentioned below:-
(1)- Such warning from main stream party of J&K like PDP about separation of Kashmir from India was due. After killing of Hizbul Commander Burhan Wani in July 2016 by Indian Security forces, Pakistan started smelling blood especially after widespread agitations and about 5 months long ‘Bandh’ (strike) in Kashmir over Burhan’s killing and injury by pellet guns (including blinding) of demonstrators.
(2)- Hence Pakistan started preparations for snatching Kashmir from India by force. As a part of the strategy to snatch Kashmir (after getting so-called pro-India Nawaz out of the way with the help of pliant judiciary) Pakistan military has already paved the way for its proxy Imran Khan as PM. After winning election in his media address Imran has already termed Kashmir as core issue and equated terrorism by Pakistan in Kashmir with alleged terrorism by India in Baluchistan.
(3)- Notwithstanding PM Modi’s hollow claims (that his visits to many Muslims countries especially of NAME region has made Muslim countries friendly to India) the Pakistan could get 2018 UNHRC report (supported by UN General Secretary) in its favor with the help (as alleged by India and its media) of these Muslim countries. These Muslim countries also supply most of petroleum oil to India ( Iran is already under US sanctions due to nuclear issue hence there is US pressure on India to stop oil imports from Iran). As supplier of crucial oil (especially during war) to India these Muslim countries will obviously do everything to see Pakistan winning war with India for protecting human rights of Muslim Kashmiris which are being violated grossly as per UNHRC 2018 report which was prepared (as alleged by India itself) on the lobbying of these Muslim countries
(4)- In this UNHRC 2018 report India has been portrayed as villain. In other words Pakistan has prepared a ground among global community where (in the event of large human right violations in Kashmir in future which Pakistan can always engineer through its proxies in Kashmir and now especially given the situation where separatist’s friendly PDP has been thrown out of government by Hindutva party BJP by withdrawing its support to PDP) any military intervention by Pakistan for snatching Muslim Kashmir will be condoned (as fait accompli) if not supported with gusto by world community (including by powerful Christian West led by USA which always wants to be seen on the right side of human rights all across the world)
(5)- Indians are under the delusion that Pakistan can never dare to attack India militarily because India is militarily too powerful as compared to Pakistan. But naïve India is not trying to understand that large Indian military in Kashmir will not be able to avoid separation of Kashmir. In this age of human rights friendly world, nuclear Pakistan need not get clear military victory over nuclear India to snatch Kashmir. Merely prolonged military engagement (even low pitch) coupled with gory violation of human rights of Kashmiris during such low-pitch war (which Pakistan can always engineer through its proxies) are enough to bring world community / UN to grant (on the so-called wish of the Kashmiris) Kashmir to Pakistan. There is one single road from Jammu to Kashmir through difficult mountainous terrain (which will cause immense problem for India in providing prolonged military supply in Kashmir valley which is surrounded by Pakistan and not so friendly China on three sides). Also presence of separatists / terrorists especially in south Kashmir will go a long way in helping Pakistan in many ways including morally and in blocking India’s only military supply line to Kashmir.
(6)- During this Indo-Pak war China will be an important & deciding factor. China (for whom Pakistan is an important ally due to CPEC) will of-course supply military equipments etc to Pakistan to any extent. As far fighters Pakistan has enough if we take Jihadi trained fighters also in reckoning, which Pakistan will get in any number (in the name of protecting human rights of Muslim Kashmiris against infidel Hindus) to match the numbers of Indian military. But if China decides to rake-up Doklam in order to snatch all or part of Arunachal Pradesh (which China claims its own) if not to cut-off entire North-East through chicken neck, then it will be different catastrophe for India. [in the matter of N-E the response of Bangladesh (on other side of Chicken-neck) will also be crucial especially in view of NCR (National citizen Register in Assam) which is bound to create serious tension between India and Bangladesh and which may even bring another Imran Khan in Bangladesh]
(7)- India can avoid separation of Kashmir if retrieves PoK militarily which may result even in federation of Indo – Pak or even SAARC because world community will not allow full-fledged war between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan. The Muslims from rest of India will be worst sufferers of separation of Kashmir from India because many Hindus still complained that why after partition Muslims were not asked to go to Muslim Pakistan and Bangladesh (then East Pakistan). After separation of Kashmir it will be almost impossible for anyone to stop India from becoming practically (if not constitutionally) a theocratic State the ‘Hindu Rashtra’ in which what will be the fate of Indian Muslims is any body’s guess.
Hence Indians (especially Indian Muslims) who do not want separation of Kashmir from India (also in the interest of survival of secularism in India) should demand vehemently and vociferously from government of India that PoK should be retrieved (even militarily if necessary) without any further delay.
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Shakopee, Minnesota, USA.
Presently at: Bengaluru, India
