Sub:- (i)- Riedel grossly under-estimating Pakistan on Kashmir and Jihadis (ii)- Getting Pakistan labeled a patron State sponsor of terrorism, will not be easy (iii)- Any weakness in Pakistan in getting Kashmir will invite ISIS in AF-PAK-Kashmir region (iv)- India should go own its own against Pakistan in first stage (v)- Despite Uri attack, India should rely only on State actors and should not think of developing illegitimate non-State actors (vi)- Otherwise India will lose tremendous goodwill among world community (vii)- India should eliminate PoJK terrorist camps as Kashmiri alienation will increase Uri like attacks (viii)- India should be prepared for all-out war and even for Realized CW / SAARC
Bruce Riedel, who served the US Central Intelligence Agency for 29 years and is one of America's leading experts on terrorism in South Asia and who chaired President Obama's committee to draft a new American policy on Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2009 expressed his views in media after September, 18 Jihadi terrorist attack at Army-camp at Uri in J&K that –“[It has been clear for several months that the Pakistani army believes the situation in Kashmir is ripe for a re-intensification of the conflict and that India has few credible options to respond. First and most importantly, the situation in Kashmir is deteriorating with alarming casualties. Second the rhetoric on both sides is heating up. This is getting dangerous. India has no good military options to stop Pakistani supported cross border violence in Kashmir. Any military response (by India) in Pakistan risks escalation and will be condemned by the international community including Washington. A better approach would be to seek diplomatic support for labeling Pakistan a patron State sponsor of terrorism]”.
Though Riedel’s views cannot be taken as US Government’s view but it more or less reflects its policy. But Riedel is grossly under-estimating Pakistan [when he says that USA (if properly mobilized) can label Pakistan a patron State sponsor of terrorism] for the simple reason that US-Pak relations, as explained below, are based on blood whereas Indo-US relations are based merely on water (economy) and blood is always thicker than water.
Pakistan has given immense blood and lives for USA. The USA won cold war in Afghanistan in late eighties against USSR on the strength of Jihadis supplied and developed by Pakistan (these Jihadis when became free were sent to Kashmir for snatching Muslim Kashmir from Hindu India). Further after 9/11 Pakistan assisted USA in Afghanistan in global war against terrorism and is still assisting USA (despite many complaints from USA and Afghanistan) in facilitating the early exit of USA and its Allies from Afghanistan.
There is one more big danger in weakening Pakistan by world community. The Islam, as per media, has laid down the lives of ~ one hundred thousand Jihadis sent by Pakistan in Kashmir and also Kashmiri Jihadis mobilized by Pakistan in Kashmir valley. Hence if Pakistan and its government (including its military) and its Jihadis are seen to be going week and incapable of snatching Muslim Kashmir from Hindu India (despite present unrest in Kashmir) then it will pave the way for the entry of blood thirsty ISIS in AF-PAK-Kashmir region. And this will immensely disturb and influence ~ one billion Muslims living in East of Iran (including in SAARC). Therefore India should go own its own against Pakistan at least in the first stage.
At the same time if Pakistan succeeds in making Kashmir an international issue it will create huge pressure for separation of Kashmir (including PoJK) from India. In any case if global community will support India on Kashmir then it is only due to global war against Jihadi terrorism hence Pakistan (despite its better title) cannot be supported by global community on Kashmir because in such case it will strengthen Jihadis.
Moreover India should not think of creating non-State actors / ‘Fidayeen’ (as was suggested on TV debate by a former Army Chief) which (as per proposal) will be an alternative to like of JuD Chief Hafiz Saeed of Pakistan (unfortunately this idea was supported by a defense expert in this debate who went even to the extent of suggesting that these Indian non-State actors should also carry out selective covert assassination acts in Pakistan). Instead India, as I have suggested, should try legitimately to eliminate terrorist camps in PoJK and then to retrieve PoJK, both militarily. [otherwise also it (Indian non-State actors) is an impractical idea because neither Hinduism has tradition of something like Jihad in Islam nor India has millions of alienated Hindus in a specific territory in Pakistan / PoJK as on the contrary Pakistan has alienated (especially after present unrest in Kashmir) millions of Muslim Kashmiris in India who provide sanctuary and material & logistic supports to Jihadi terrorists coming from Pakistan in Kashmir]
Therefore the government of India should take the initiative and should, without any further delay, take military action to immediately eliminate ~ 40 terrorist camps which are operating in India’s territory of PoJK, as explained at:-
http://www.alwihdainfo.com/India-should-eliminate-PoJK-terrorist-camps-as-Kashmiri-alienation-will-increase-Uri-like-attacks_a41016.html
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Bengaluru, India
Bruce Riedel, who served the US Central Intelligence Agency for 29 years and is one of America's leading experts on terrorism in South Asia and who chaired President Obama's committee to draft a new American policy on Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2009 expressed his views in media after September, 18 Jihadi terrorist attack at Army-camp at Uri in J&K that –“[It has been clear for several months that the Pakistani army believes the situation in Kashmir is ripe for a re-intensification of the conflict and that India has few credible options to respond. First and most importantly, the situation in Kashmir is deteriorating with alarming casualties. Second the rhetoric on both sides is heating up. This is getting dangerous. India has no good military options to stop Pakistani supported cross border violence in Kashmir. Any military response (by India) in Pakistan risks escalation and will be condemned by the international community including Washington. A better approach would be to seek diplomatic support for labeling Pakistan a patron State sponsor of terrorism]”.
Though Riedel’s views cannot be taken as US Government’s view but it more or less reflects its policy. But Riedel is grossly under-estimating Pakistan [when he says that USA (if properly mobilized) can label Pakistan a patron State sponsor of terrorism] for the simple reason that US-Pak relations, as explained below, are based on blood whereas Indo-US relations are based merely on water (economy) and blood is always thicker than water.
Pakistan has given immense blood and lives for USA. The USA won cold war in Afghanistan in late eighties against USSR on the strength of Jihadis supplied and developed by Pakistan (these Jihadis when became free were sent to Kashmir for snatching Muslim Kashmir from Hindu India). Further after 9/11 Pakistan assisted USA in Afghanistan in global war against terrorism and is still assisting USA (despite many complaints from USA and Afghanistan) in facilitating the early exit of USA and its Allies from Afghanistan.
There is one more big danger in weakening Pakistan by world community. The Islam, as per media, has laid down the lives of ~ one hundred thousand Jihadis sent by Pakistan in Kashmir and also Kashmiri Jihadis mobilized by Pakistan in Kashmir valley. Hence if Pakistan and its government (including its military) and its Jihadis are seen to be going week and incapable of snatching Muslim Kashmir from Hindu India (despite present unrest in Kashmir) then it will pave the way for the entry of blood thirsty ISIS in AF-PAK-Kashmir region. And this will immensely disturb and influence ~ one billion Muslims living in East of Iran (including in SAARC). Therefore India should go own its own against Pakistan at least in the first stage.
At the same time if Pakistan succeeds in making Kashmir an international issue it will create huge pressure for separation of Kashmir (including PoJK) from India. In any case if global community will support India on Kashmir then it is only due to global war against Jihadi terrorism hence Pakistan (despite its better title) cannot be supported by global community on Kashmir because in such case it will strengthen Jihadis.
Moreover India should not think of creating non-State actors / ‘Fidayeen’ (as was suggested on TV debate by a former Army Chief) which (as per proposal) will be an alternative to like of JuD Chief Hafiz Saeed of Pakistan (unfortunately this idea was supported by a defense expert in this debate who went even to the extent of suggesting that these Indian non-State actors should also carry out selective covert assassination acts in Pakistan). Instead India, as I have suggested, should try legitimately to eliminate terrorist camps in PoJK and then to retrieve PoJK, both militarily. [otherwise also it (Indian non-State actors) is an impractical idea because neither Hinduism has tradition of something like Jihad in Islam nor India has millions of alienated Hindus in a specific territory in Pakistan / PoJK as on the contrary Pakistan has alienated (especially after present unrest in Kashmir) millions of Muslim Kashmiris in India who provide sanctuary and material & logistic supports to Jihadi terrorists coming from Pakistan in Kashmir]
Therefore the government of India should take the initiative and should, without any further delay, take military action to immediately eliminate ~ 40 terrorist camps which are operating in India’s territory of PoJK, as explained at:-
http://www.alwihdainfo.com/India-should-eliminate-PoJK-terrorist-camps-as-Kashmiri-alienation-will-increase-Uri-like-attacks_a41016.html
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Bengaluru, India