Sub:- (i)- Russia has trapped itself through South-East Ukraine
(ii)- Patriotism of Ukrainians about Crimea will be deciding factor
(iii)- May 25 elections, the master stroke of West
(ii)- Patriotism of Ukrainians about Crimea will be deciding factor
(iii)- May 25 elections, the master stroke of West
Dear Sir or Madam
Russia had all the upper hand in Ukraine crisis till mid March because entire world was not approving the interference of West (USA & Allies, who claim to promote democracy world over including in NAME countries
through 'Arab-spring') in creating trouble (by instigating and allegedly helping protesters) against an elected President Yanukovych, who ultimately was removed in coup ironically just after an agreement on February, 21 - which was reached between then Ukraine government and opposition leaders in presence of Germany, France, Poland and Russia. But all changed after Russia annexed Crimea in later half of March. Since then Russia is committing mistakes one after another. Now after so-called May, 11 referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk region of
Ukraine, Russia is in deep trouble militarily, as explained below:-
(1)- Annexation of Crimea and coup at Kiev triggered agitations in South- Eastern Ukraine. There people said that if Crimea may go to Russia on the basis of referendum then why not we ? Also, if government at Kiev may come in office by violent agitations and brute force then why not we?
(2)- Russia , being a veto-wielding country of UN, may be knowing better than any other country that such referendums or any other expression of public opinion of predominant majority in some pockets of a country, does not mean any thing unless world power recognizes it. The example of South Asia is sufficient to understand this.
Kashmir and North-East in India , Tamilians in Sri Lanka, Tibetans in China, Baloachs in Pakistan etc have been airing such and similar demands but it has made no difference, as far as territorial integrity or even political system of these countries are concerned.
(3)- Normally elections are not conducted in any country in troubled and violent environment. But West has dealt a master stroke by getting Ukraine government to declare elections on May, 25 which will provide legitimacy to the government of Ukraine. Even if smooth elections do not take place on May, 25 in areas where Russian speaking people are in majority, it will make no difference and will not be so important. After all in all these countries (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh) also there have been opposition and even boycott of many general elections in some areas.
(4)- But now on-wards problems for Russia will be real. After May, 11 referendum Donetsk and Luhansk, as independent sovereign States, will try to form government (with its military, police, bureaucracy, judiciary, Parliament etc) or will demand autonomy / federalism etc., which West will see to it that Ukraine government does not concede and crushes with full police and military force any such demands (and these demands are highly likely to be violent) . This is bound to result in bloodshed of Russian speaking Ukrainians in these or may be in other regions (as happened in Odessa). This will bring tremendous pressure on Putin (Russian government) from the people of Russia to stop such bloodshed in Ukraine of Russian speaking people (who are now potentially Russian citizens in view of recent law passed by Russia about citizenship).
(5)- Here Crimea will be deciding factor. If Ukrainians out of their patriotism or West out of their respect for international laws start demanding the retrieve of Crimea and go as far as (which is highly likely) to take back Crimea from Russia militarily, then Russia had it.
(6)- The present policy of USA namely 'No American boots on ground' will not be a problem for Ukraine especially in view that European countries have no such hitch. Moreover if Ukraine sends loud and clear message to the people of USA that Ukraine will provide most of the blood and lives for this retrieve of Crimea from Russia, then USA (which has legal obligation to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine as per Budapest Memorandum 1994 and which has already mobilized some troops and other military assets around Ukraine) will see to it that the Ukraine crises reaches to its logical conclusion (which as per USA is nothing short of retrieve of Crimea and installation of stable pro-West government in Ukraine).
Your truly
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
67, Heath Ct, Pennington, NJ - 08534, USA
Ph: 612-202-4053