Sub:- (i)- Only one factor will be crucial in Kashmir, whether or not separatists succeed in prolonging ‘Bandh’ (ii)- India, already blinded by animosity against Pakistan and China, will continue to interfere illegally in Baluchistan (iii)- Pakistan (already rendered-irrelevant in Kashmir), bound to rake-up Khalistan movement (iv)- China can’t be expected to remain passive spectator about sabotage of economic corridor (v)- USA driven by containment of China, will only worsen the situation.
----The recent deals done by US Defense Secretary Ash Cater with Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar in Washington and by Secretary of State John Kerry with Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj in Delhi though do not mean much in terms of nuclear India’s capabilities / resolve about waging war against nuclear Pakistan and China or in fighting against global Jihadi terrorism but it certainly has a profound impact on mischief-factor to which both India and Pakistan will resort to in view of (i.v.o) ongoing up-rising in Kashmir as given below:-
(1)- Unresolved gory and chronic Kashmir problem was building up anger in Kashmiris which went to explosive level due to two factors, social media and ISIS / Caliphate [which has given renewed hope to Jihadis (in case local Jihadi organizations are not effective) all over the world including in Kashmir].
(2)- With this changed scenario killing of Hizbul commander Burhan Wani on July, 8 has triggered uprising in Kashmir which resulted not only in curfew of 51 days lifted only on Monday (and killing of ~ 70, injuring 7,000 and injured eyes of ~150 by pellet guns) but in still-ongoing strike (‘Bandh / Hratal’) the pervasiveness of which can be gauged from a simple fact that Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh visited Kashmir twice during this period but representatives of business / trade / industries refused (despite invitation by State government) to meet him on both the occasions.
(3)- Earlier unrests in Kashmir were carried out by some people supported by Jihadis mainly from Pakistan (and some Jihadis from Kashmir) but this time protests, Bandh etc are carried out by people of Kashmir (including women, children and old people). This has made Pakistan almost irrelevant in present Kashmir uprising. Now only one factor will be crucial in Kashmir (even unconcerned with what happens to PoJK), whether or not separatists succeed in prolonging ‘Bandh’ for months together. If separatists succeed in it then (in present human rights friendly social media savvy world) no power on earth can stop Kashmiris from achieving Kashmir solution to their full satisfaction.
(4)- Realizing this situation, India has already gone berserk. Instead of concentrating on resolving Kashmir problem [which is nothing but unification of Kashmir by retrieving PoJK (militarily if necessary) and which can be done only by a government led by some genuinely secular party which India does not have] India (with the support of jingoist forces in India got emboldened by regime of jingoist and loud mouthed PM Modi (boasting to have 56 inch chest) has started interfering in Baluchistan out of animosity not only against its traditional rival Pakistan but also against another ‘enemy’ (since 1962 war) China (which India thinks will be harmed immensely due its interests in Baluchistan (through economic corridor and Gwadar port). In such situation China can’t be expected to remain passive spectator about sabotage of economic corridor (which is almost a life line for China because it not only tremendously reduces length / cost of transportation of its exports and imports but also by-passes not-so-friendly many countries of Pacific and Indo-Sri Lanka region while approaching Middle-East and Africa).
(5)- Here it is in context to mention that if India is serious about human rights violation then it should ask UN to amend its human rights enforcement mechanism by replacing optional protocol OP-1 of ICCPR by Mandatory Protocol MP-1 and by asking UN to enact law which will allow not only private HRNGOs but also UNHR Observers in erring countries (be it in Baluchistan or in any other country wherever human rights are grossly violated). But India (which did not allow even UNHR Observers to see the situation in Kashmir during present unrest) will not address HR violation issue in Baluchistan as per law and will continue to interfere illegally in Baluchistan (as India did in Sri Lanka too which ultimately resulted in genocide of Tamils by Sri Lankan forces after India withdrew its PKF and allowed Sri Lanka to eliminate LTTE and about which UN HR Body is still looking into the matter).
(6)- In such a desperate situation (when India is hell-bent to interfere in Baluchistan) Pakistan is left only with one alternative that is to rake-up Khalistan movement as mentioned at:-
https://kashmirobserver.net/2016/letters/protests-sikh-groups-srinagar-has-troubling-dimensions-9804
(7)- It is precisely here that USA will play an important role in further overtly inciting India to discipline Jihadi-producing-Pakistan but covertly to harm Chinese interests (about economic corridor and Gwadar port) as containment of China is the main motivation of USA in befriending India. Otherwise also USA is now not a country practicing American values (given by its founding fathers which brought immense power and respect to USA in the past) hence now USA is a country of ‘Shishnodars’ (interested only in procreating and filling the tummies) hence not a solution to global problems but the cause of most of the problems across the world.
[This is evident from the case of Ukraine and NAME countries which are bleeding and weeping profusely mainly due to USA. In Ukraine USA did not discharge its legal liability under Budapest Memorandum to protect territorial integrity of Ukraine and allowed Russia to grab Crimea and incite unrest in Donbass region. And in Syria instead of ensuring election under some interim government under supervision of UN Election Observers, USA unnecessarily insisted in not having President Assad as head of interim government with the result in a country of ~ 22 millions, as per media ~ 0.5 million are killed many more injured ~ 11 millions are displaced out of which ~ 4.8 millions in other countries with immense destruction of properties moreover horrible stories of sexual exploitation of women and girls in refugee camps etc are doing round in social media. Regarding other countries of NAME the USA led coalition triggered Arab-spring which has resulted in unnecessary immense bloodshed and other sufferings of the people for the simple reason that USA does not have any commitment and faith in democracy].
Therefore in such a backdrop of jingoistic India and unethically exploitative USA, the world community should keep a careful watch on military / strategy related actions of India and USA especially in view of ongoing Kashmir uprising which has all the potential of changing the map of South Asia (through Realized SAARC / Common Wealth).
Regards
Hem Raj Jain
(Author of ‘Betrayal of Americanism’)
Bengaluru, India